All I can say is, Thank God for awards shows and freestyle fighting. I may not know much...but what I do know, works. 
Disclaimer: This is my first time trying to hit the Grammys. With 16,000 voters, it's a little more difficult to try and gauge their tastes, and because of the way the odds are, I'm going to be taking some leaps of faith. Playing any one of these props could net you some trouble, because they work best in pairs. You'll see what I mean.
Album of the Year
Green Day, "American Idiot" +800
A cursory glance of pundit's picks will net you one near-universal opinion: this is Ray Charles' year. For one, the Grammys love to award post-mortem prizes. Second, the Jamie Foxx movie kept his memory at the forefront of popular culture for the better part of the year (and should net Foxx an Oscar). That album - "Genius Loves Company" - opened up at +500 but was eventually bet down to current odds averaging -150.
Why did it open so high on the board? Because the album is mediocre, that's why. God bless Ray and all, but it wouldn't have even gotten a nomination if it weren't for his passing. The best vinyl on the slate is easily - easily! - Green Day's "Idiot," an anti-establishment anthem that lambasts media propoganda and questionable government manuevering. While it sounds dry, this is a punk group, and the songs are infectiously hip. The record's ambition netted Green Day record sales, as well as some of the best reviews of the year. (I sound like a PR flack. Geez.)
This is a two-horse race, in my opinion. Kanye West's "College Dropout" will probably take Best Rap Album (if Jay Z doesn't), but, damn, it's horrible to my ears and has little chance for the big prize. I can appreciate good rap, but I cannot fathom how this guy made it. When he breaks into a twelve-minute spoken monologue about how he was discovered, I had to bail. Usher's "Confessions" is standard-issue pop music, making enough of an impact to get a nom but it's not going all the way. I suppose Alicia Keys shouldn't be overlooked, as these awards love solo female vocalists, but I don't see a ton of hype surrounding her this year.
Are they a deserved 'dog? Sure. Charles is a tough horse to outrun, and smart bettors would be wise to hedge with his disc if they can get a good price. But giving me 8-1 odds on the best-sounding, best-reviewed, most "important," most ambitious nomination of the group, especially when thousands of anti-Bush liberals are voting? Sentiment may well win, but this is WAY too good to ignore. Listen to it. It's a f-cking great disc, a punk anthem for our time. And if they can't pull if off here...
Record of the Year
"American Idiot," Green Day +800
...then they might pull if off here. The title track is a terrific riff on the brainwashed masses and the persuasive media army. I'm sure the disc itself will win Best Rock Album, but I really believe voters will take one of these two high-profile categories to make a political statement and, better yet, award a deserving band their due.
Usher's "Yeah!" was everywhere this year, but I don't think any "urban" fluff pop has taken this prize yet. Charles' duet with Norah Jones is the favorite, but if it wins, it'll be the first to do so without ever cracking the Billboard Top 100. Oh, and it's not very good. "Idiot" peaked just as voters were checking boxes, and best of all, the song's producer is up for the Producer of the Year award. This prize is about the most polished, well-produced, lyrical recording of the year. "Idiot" is it.
Best New Artist
Joss Stone +1000
Gretchen Wilson +1200
While country bumpkin Wilson and pop star Stone don't have the bling-bling of Kanye West, Grammy history says it won't matter: 8 of the last 10 BNA winners have been females, and the ninth (Evanescence) is led by a female. Wilson was named one of the "Entertainers of the Year" by Entertainment Weekly and, believe it or not, authored the best-selling album of 2004. Even better, she beat West for the same award at the American Music Awards a few months back. Maroon 5 seems to be gaining momentum, but I say the redneck contingent shows up strong, and if not, I'll rely on the trend to support the females. CRAZY lines!
D-d-dat's all, folks. Curious if anyone has anything to contribute.
Disclaimer: This is my first time trying to hit the Grammys. With 16,000 voters, it's a little more difficult to try and gauge their tastes, and because of the way the odds are, I'm going to be taking some leaps of faith. Playing any one of these props could net you some trouble, because they work best in pairs. You'll see what I mean.
Album of the Year
Green Day, "American Idiot" +800
A cursory glance of pundit's picks will net you one near-universal opinion: this is Ray Charles' year. For one, the Grammys love to award post-mortem prizes. Second, the Jamie Foxx movie kept his memory at the forefront of popular culture for the better part of the year (and should net Foxx an Oscar). That album - "Genius Loves Company" - opened up at +500 but was eventually bet down to current odds averaging -150.
Why did it open so high on the board? Because the album is mediocre, that's why. God bless Ray and all, but it wouldn't have even gotten a nomination if it weren't for his passing. The best vinyl on the slate is easily - easily! - Green Day's "Idiot," an anti-establishment anthem that lambasts media propoganda and questionable government manuevering. While it sounds dry, this is a punk group, and the songs are infectiously hip. The record's ambition netted Green Day record sales, as well as some of the best reviews of the year. (I sound like a PR flack. Geez.)
This is a two-horse race, in my opinion. Kanye West's "College Dropout" will probably take Best Rap Album (if Jay Z doesn't), but, damn, it's horrible to my ears and has little chance for the big prize. I can appreciate good rap, but I cannot fathom how this guy made it. When he breaks into a twelve-minute spoken monologue about how he was discovered, I had to bail. Usher's "Confessions" is standard-issue pop music, making enough of an impact to get a nom but it's not going all the way. I suppose Alicia Keys shouldn't be overlooked, as these awards love solo female vocalists, but I don't see a ton of hype surrounding her this year.
Are they a deserved 'dog? Sure. Charles is a tough horse to outrun, and smart bettors would be wise to hedge with his disc if they can get a good price. But giving me 8-1 odds on the best-sounding, best-reviewed, most "important," most ambitious nomination of the group, especially when thousands of anti-Bush liberals are voting? Sentiment may well win, but this is WAY too good to ignore. Listen to it. It's a f-cking great disc, a punk anthem for our time. And if they can't pull if off here...
Record of the Year
"American Idiot," Green Day +800
...then they might pull if off here. The title track is a terrific riff on the brainwashed masses and the persuasive media army. I'm sure the disc itself will win Best Rock Album, but I really believe voters will take one of these two high-profile categories to make a political statement and, better yet, award a deserving band their due.
Usher's "Yeah!" was everywhere this year, but I don't think any "urban" fluff pop has taken this prize yet. Charles' duet with Norah Jones is the favorite, but if it wins, it'll be the first to do so without ever cracking the Billboard Top 100. Oh, and it's not very good. "Idiot" peaked just as voters were checking boxes, and best of all, the song's producer is up for the Producer of the Year award. This prize is about the most polished, well-produced, lyrical recording of the year. "Idiot" is it.
Best New Artist
Joss Stone +1000
Gretchen Wilson +1200
While country bumpkin Wilson and pop star Stone don't have the bling-bling of Kanye West, Grammy history says it won't matter: 8 of the last 10 BNA winners have been females, and the ninth (Evanescence) is led by a female. Wilson was named one of the "Entertainers of the Year" by Entertainment Weekly and, believe it or not, authored the best-selling album of 2004. Even better, she beat West for the same award at the American Music Awards a few months back. Maroon 5 seems to be gaining momentum, but I say the redneck contingent shows up strong, and if not, I'll rely on the trend to support the females. CRAZY lines!
D-d-dat's all, folks. Curious if anyone has anything to contribute.
arty:
